How to Keep Your Mind on Solid Ground During the Latest UFO Excitement

Screen shot of a U.S. Navy UAP. Credit: US Navy/DOD.

Look to the skies! UFOs are trending again! In recent months, UFO interest has gained sufficient altitude to escape not only the immense gravity wells of Facebook and Twitter but even that dark credibility vacuum known as The History Channel. Serious though incomplete reporting has appeared in mainstream news media, including The New York Times, USA Today (Shannon 2021), the Associated Press (Finley 2019), and 60 Minutes (Whittaker 2021), while politicians have made stern-faced comments about threats to national security (Rosenwald 2021). Former U.S. Navy pilots—backed up by videos—appeared on 60 Minutes to describe being stumped after strange in-flight experiences. And then there is Harvard theoretical physicist Avi Loeb, who strongly suggests—if not outright declares—that passing interstellar object 1I/2017 U1 (‘Oumuamua) is an extraterrestrial spaceship (Billings 2021; Ahmed 2021).

So, what does all this smoke and noise mean? Not much, it turns out.

As a result of inadequate reporting that neglected to include sufficient scientific perspective, many people now seem to believe that the U.S. military has confirmed the existence of extraterrestrial visitors—or is at least closing in on proof. But this is not the case, of course. UFOs (some call them UAPs, “unidentified arial phenomena”) are not spaceships necessarily. Why would declaring that UFOs/UAPs are “real” be considered major news? By definition, a UFO/UAP is a mysterious blur, blip, or fuzzy dot. Didn’t everyone already understand that there are things in the sky that defy immediate identification? Moreover, there is nothing substantially new or controversial about the U.S. military being concerned about unidentified airborne objects and investigating them within reason. What is clear is that despite the flurry of news coverage, the status quo remains unchanged. The U.S. military has not confirmed the existence of extraterrestrial vehicles of any kind, and no direct evidence for one has been presented by anyone.

Conceptual rendering of ‘Oumuamua. Credit: NASA/JPL.

Regarding excitement about ‘Oumuamua, Harvard astrophysicist Loeb has not made a convincing case for it being an interstellar spaceship or derelict machinery from a distant civilization. His book Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth, stumbled out of the gate because that subtitle could have worked only with a question mark. As a statement of fact it fails, as does this line from the publisher’s description of the book: “There was only one conceivable explanation: the object was a piece of advanced technology created by a distant alien civilization” (Loeb 2021). ‘Oumuamua is certainly fascinating and worthy of study. It came from somewhere else and accelerated while passing through our neighborhood. But there are explanations for it that not only are conceivable but more likely to be true (Plait 2020). For example, the acceleration might be explained by “outgassing,” a natural phenomenon that occurs when gaseous material is expelled from the surface of an object (Davis 2018). “Assertions that ‘Oumuamua may be artificial are not justified,” wrote the authors of a comprehensive study published in Nature Astronomy, the top-ranked journal of astronomy and astrophysics (‘Oumuamua ISSI Team 2019). (Also see “Interstellar Visitor: The Strange Asteroid from a Faraway System,” SI, March/April 2018.)

Are Aliens Us?

If the latest intriguing stories and images are not the result of simple perception errors or confusing camera/sensor data, perhaps human aircraft is the explanation. My book 50 Popular Beliefs That People Think Are True, published in 2012, includes a chapter on UFOs. In it I predicted that UFO sightings and interest would surge in the coming years because of the explosive global growth of drones, or UAVs (uncrewed aerial vehicles). Many nations and companies have been investing significant money and engineering talent into this field for years. As a result, there is now a remarkable diversity of UAVs, many of which look quite different from conventional airplanes. Some can do things common aircraft cannot. DARPA, for example, has developed and tested the super-sleek triangular-shaped Falcon HTV-2. This “hypersonic cruise vehicle” can fly in the atmosphere at astonishing speeds of up to Mach 22, approximately 14,000 mph (Erbland n.d.).

Perhaps more relevant to UFO sightings than raw speed is the maneuverability of high-performance UAVs. Unrestrained by the presence of fragile human pilots with squishy brains prone to blackouts, UAVs can be pushed to the limits of power-weight ratios and fuselage/wing strength. It is likely that some cutting-edge and still-secret UAVs can accelerate, decelerate, and maneuver in ways that virtually every human on Earth—including most military pilots and radar/sensor personnel—are not yet familiar with. I also pointed out years ago that some advanced UAVs are surprisingly small, even insect-sized. This presents another layer of potential confusion for observers trying to assess distance, speed, and identity.

Do Astronomers Hate ET?

Many UFO enthusiasts seem to have strawman fallacy factories somewhere inside their brains, because they repeatedly describe the scientific community as being obtuse and closed-minded about aliens. This does not seem accurate given how many scientists have written books and gone on record in interviews about their enthusiasm for the possibility of life beyond Earth. I have endured close encounters with some of the most boring conservative-minded scientists imaginable, and even they brightened up in reaction to questions about extraterrestrial life. I have visited SETI headquarters in Mountain View, California—tangible evidence that science is curious. I have interviewed and chatted with many professional scientists in several disciplines relevant to this topic, and none of them were irrationally opposed to the idea of alien life. The only hitch when it comes to UFOs is that good scientists recognize the absence of strong data and will not presume to know what they do not know. They understand that amazing things are possible but resist jumping ahead of available evidence—as we all should.

Keeping the following brief points in mind can help all of us stay intellectually grounded when assessing news about UFOs:

“Unidentified”—the U in UFO and UAP—does not mean alien spacecraft. “Unexplained” is not an explanation.
UFO enthusiasts often suggest that the integrity, sincerity, or mental state of a witness is unfairly assaulted when a claim is met with skepticism. This tactic is either uninformed or dishonest because skeptics consistently and continually explain that to some degree everyone is vulnerable to illusions and misinterpretations—no deceit or insanity required (Harrison 2013).
We do not see the world around us in full or as it really is. Our eyes receive reflected light from objects, and then our brains do rapid translations or reconstructions of that information to present us with a manufactured and highly edited scene that we “see” in our minds. Human vision is often unreliable, as has been confirmed by numerous experiments (Harrison 2015).
Beliefs influence perception. Those who believe in ghosts prior to entering a dark and creepy house are more likely to “see” and “hear” ghosts than those who did not hold that prior belief. Some UFO sightings are likely the result of beliefs coloring the experience (Harrison 2013).
Remember that human memory is imperfect and unreliable. Our brain is not an organic video/audio recording and playback system. The brain retrieves bits of information from past experiences, stiches them together, and then tells us a story about the past that is meant to be useful in the present. Given all that science has revealed about how poorly we remember, it makes no sense to trust anyone’s recollection of seeing an extraterrestrial spaceship last year, last week, or five minutes ago. For something so unusual and important, we need much more than eyewitness accounts to make the case (Harrison 2015).
One often hears about a UFO flying in ways that “defy physics.” Such claims mean little because few people understand physics. Mass in motion, particularly in the sky or space, may behave in ways that are counterintuitive and surprising to most people. Ignorance about physics, mixed with standard vision or memory errors, make a potent recipe for UFO confusion.
The expertise of a witness is close to irrelevant. Commercial airline and military pilots may be only marginally better than anyone else when it comes to accurately observing and remembering UFO sightings, because they too must rely on a human brain that is highly susceptible to error.
It is surprisingly easy for an observer to misinterpret the speed and direction of a flying object when observed from some angles. Mick West, author of Escaping the Rabbit Hole, explains this well on his website MetaBunk.org.
Radar and other sensing systems used by militaries are not infallible. Their output may be inaccurate if they are faulty, not properly calibrated, or tasked to do something they were not designed to do. And, of course, data are always subject to misinterpretation by human minds.

Skipping past “unidentified” to land on “aliens” is sloppy, unscientific thinking. There is work to be done between unknown and known. Why are aliens the default answer, anyway? Why aren’t more UFO sightings and grainy black-and-white videos interpreted as ghosts or airborne witches? If witches exist, it means they are already here and don’t have to solve the hard problem of interstellar travel. Their brooms are reputed to be airworthy, and no one has proved that open UFO cases are not witches. Come to think of it, how can we be sure that Bigfoot is not winged and capable of flight? The bottom line is that if an unidentified blur, light, or dot can be aliens, then it can be anything.

I am neither intellectually nor emotionally opposed to extraterrestrial visitation. I’m all for it. If they ever land in my city, I will be the guy elbowing his way past and outrunning every UFO buff for the chance to make first contact. I would love for the universe to include one or many Star Wars galaxies filled with countless cultures and high drama. I hope for a Star Trek future in which we work and play well with intelligent species throughout the Milky Way. But I am not so eager that I am willing to surrender my intellectual integrity and clutter my mind with fool’s gold to get there.

It is in our self-interest to be responsible thinkers and police our thoughts as best we can. This means pausing to doubt and analyze when faced with important claims—especially those we would love to be true. Thinking before believing is prudent and wise because it leaves more time and brain power for the real stuff. Dedicating ourselves to the principles of scientific reason rewards us not only with useful knowledge of the world around us but also leads us in the direction of enough true beauty and wonder to fill a universe.

References

Ahmed, Issam. 2021. Harvard astronomer argues that alien vessel paid us a visit. PhysOrg (February 6). Available online at https://phys.org/news/2021-02-harvard-astronomer-alien-vessel-paid.html.

Billings, Lee. 2021. Astronomer Avi Loeb says aliens have visited, and he’s not kidding. Scientific American (February 1). Available online at https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/astronomer-avi-loeb-says-aliens-have-visited-and-hes-not-kidding1/.

Davis, Phil. 2018. 10 things: Mysterious ‘Oumuamua. NASA.gov (July 2). Available online at https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/news/482/10-things-mysterious-oumuamua/.

Erbland, Peter. n.d. Falcon HTV02, DARPA. Available online at https://www.darpa.mil/program/falcon-htv-2.

Finley, Ben. 2019. ‘What is that, man?’ Navy confirms videos of flying objects. Associated Press (September 20).

Harrison, Guy P. 2013. Think: Why You Should Question Everything. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books.

———. 2015. Good Thinking: What You Need to Know to Be Smarter, Safer, Wealthier, and Wiser. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books.

Loeb, Avri. 2021. Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life beyond Earth. HMH Books and Media. Available online at https://www.hmhbooks.com/shop/books/Extraterrestrial/9780358278146?ftag=MSF0951a18.

Plait, Phil. 2020. Is ‘Oumuamua an interstellar craft? I’m still going with ‘No.’ SyFy Wire (May 15). Available online at https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/is-oumuamua-an-interstellar-spaceship-im-still-going-with-no.

The ‘Oumuamua ISSI Team. 2019. The Natural history of ‘Oumuamua. Nature Astronomy 3:594–602. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-019-0816-x.

Rosenwald, Michael S. 2021. How UFO sightings went from joke to national security worry in Washington. Washington Post (May 23). Available online at https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2021/05/23/ufo-report-sightings-search/.

Shannon, Joel. 2021. ‘We can’t ignore this’: UFO sightings spark concern from more than just conspiracy theorists. USA Today (May 31). Available online at https://www.usatodaylcom/story/news/nation/2021/05/30/ufo-sightings-spark-concern-more-than-just-conspiracy-theorists/7479065002/.

Whittaker, Bill. 2021. UFOs regularly spotted in restricted U.S. airspace, report on the phenomena due next month. CBS 60 Minutes (May 16). Available online at https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ufo-military-intelligence-60-minutes-2021-05-16/.

Guy P. Harrison

Guy P. Harrison is an award-winning journalist and the author of eight books that promote science and reason. His books include Think: Why You Should Question Everything, an introduction to critical thinking appropriate for all ages. His most recent book is At Least Know This: Essential Science to Enhance Your Life. Follow Harrison on twitter at @harrisonauthor.

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